09 Feb 26' Buy everything below $70k
If you don't buy here, so where?
[Brief in Audio version]
BTC is currently trading around the $70k level, a critical range established following the spot ETF approval. This price point represents peak ETF flows and adoption, serving as a psychological floor where the majority of buyers step in.
We recently witnessed rapid buying pressure following a cascade below this threshold. For investors that sold above $100k, accumulating below $70k is the logical strategy; failing to buy here questions one’s conviction to validate new highs. Without a sharp “V shape” recovery from this level, we risk a decline into the 50s. However, I am currently observing promising onchain accumulation within this range.
BTC is currently trading around the $70k level, a critical range established following the spot ETF approval. This price point represents peak ETF flows and adoption, serving as a psychological floor where the majority of buyers step in.
We recently witnessed rapid buying pressure following a cascade below this threshold. For investors that sold above $100k, accumulating below $70k is the logical strategy; failing to buy here questions one’s conviction to validate new highs. Without a sharp “V shape” recovery from this level, we risk a decline into the 50s. However, I am currently observing promising onchain accumulation within this range.
While the micro-structure of Bitcoin favors appreciation, the macro environment presents significant headwinds.
Geopolitical tension is rising, US forces seizing Venezuelan crude tankers. This aggressive enforcement regarding oil control adds strain to the international order.
Simultaneously, friction with Iran is escalating, highlighted by US live-fire maritime exercises in the Persian Gulf. Polymarket currently prices a 54% chance of a US attack on Iran by June 30. Such a conflict would severely impact global security and oil prices, driving a shift toward risk-off assets.
Consequently, investors are dumping USD exposure and US equities to favor commodities. Billionaires like Thomas Kaplan are arguing that “the only things that I’ve believed in since the financial crises are gold and silver, and that’s how I’ve positioned myself.”
As capital flees equities, software companies have suffered the most, seeing their PE premium vanish.
However, the market appears to be overreacting to the “showcase of claude” and fearing a total collapse. I believe some consumer software retains strong moats because users often prioritize convenience and network effects over cheaper alternatives. With IGV volatility high, we are likely near the bottom for SaaS.
MSFT is currently trading at $415, more than 25% below its ATH, suggesting significant potential upside.
Crypto keeps waiting for the market structure bill. Although FED’s Waller recently noted that crypto clarity seems to be stalled in congress, legal clarity is essential. Once passed, a new wave of AI-integrated native crypto software and RWA crypto products will emerge.
In this AI-driven era, where products are easily replicated, distribution becomes the key differentiator. A prime example is Mr Beast buying the fintech STEP; his influence alone will likely drive millions of new users to the platform. Ultimately, owning the distribution is more relevant than ever.
This is intended to be a thought exercise, and not financial advice. Reach out in open conversations, DM me or comment anytime.
I’m aiming to provide clarity about my proprietary mental model everyday. Hoping that together we get smarter and more financial intelligent.
Thanks, Joao