12 Predictions for 2026
Consensus & non-consensus predictions for 2026.
This is my favorite time of year, the season of predictions and contradictions.
It is where we engage with the forecasts of yesteryear, measuring how accurate or far off the spectrum they truly were. I find this playbook engaging and valuable, but I intend to approach it differently.
Most predictions are built on consensus: betting on obvious trends and safe conclusions. I will attempt to frame this with an investor mindset. Why does this matter? Because when thousands of words are shaped by consensus, opportunities vanish. I see agreement around many topics and a lack of conflict in others, which is alarming. When everyone is bullish on a single narrative, the time to build a portfolio with a margin of safety has passed. The asset may still appreciate, but it does so without the risk-reward ratio that justifies a disciplined buy.
Here are 2026 predictions and contractions.
1. [CONSENSUS] Stablecoins and Payments: The Rising Tide
The Consensus: Stablecoins will dominate payments, cross-border transactions, and business settlements, with Tether (USDT) losing market share to new entrants.
The Investor View: I agree, but the nuance lies in the “zero cost” nature of the business. Because running a stablecoin costs roughly nothing, there is no incentive for lagging issuers to shut down. We will see a flood of new stablecoins, pushing down the individual market share of existing giants even as the TAM explodes.
Who Wins?
The biggest winners won’t be specific crypto tokens, but the infrastructure and fintech companies shipping these rails to users.
Public/Private Giants: Stripe and PayPal are direct beneficiaries.
Consumer Apps: Starbucks or “Buy Now, Pay Later” platforms will integrate stablecoins to bypass card rails.
DEXs & Liquidity: As stablecoins fragment (some closed-loop, some permissionless), DEXs (Uniswap, Aerodrome, Orca) and Aggregators (Jupiter, CoW Protocol, 1inch) become the essential layer connecting this fragmented liquidity. Aggregators, in particular, will win by sitting at the front end, optimizing pricing, and turning on fee switches once they prove essential.
2. [CONSENSUS] Onchain Volumes & The Aggregator Moat
DEX volumes are set to surge, eating into centralized exchange (CEX) market share. In a world of fragmented liquidity across multiple chains and pools, the Aggregator becomes king. Protocols like CoW Swap are already proving they can be shipped directly to app front-ends (e.g., Aave integrations).
The Fee Flywheel: Direct DEXs also win. Revenue relies on LP fees. If a DEX cuts fees to zero to compete, liquidity providers (LPs) will flee. Therefore, DEXs and LP’s have a mutual incentive to maintain sustainable fee rates. Aggregators will simply route volume to the most efficient pools (CLOBs, dark pools, or AMMs), creating a massive arbitrage economy that drives overall volume higher.
Winners: Independent arbitrage traders & Liquidity providers; DEX’s & DEX Aggregators
3. [NON-CONSENSUS] Business Models: The Token Issuance Machine
The “Token Issuance” business model (e.g., PumpFun) was the breakout star of the cycle, and I predict it will hit new all-time highs in revenue in 2026.
The Catalyst: As price performance returns, social sentiment will follow.
The Engine: Streamers will continue to drive this economy. As new streamers test these platforms, they generate a flywheel of fees, volume, and attention. PumpFun is positioned to be a major winner here. We tested and it works, the issuance of tokens can be fun and attractive. As the young folks see this an interesting playground, it becomes a battlefield that will comeback, with incremental revenue.
4. [CONSENSUS] Fintech Adopts DeFi Rails
Fintechs will stop building their own walled gardens and start adopting DeFi rails to offer superior products.
The Prediction: We will see major players (like Revolut) utilizing protocols like Morpho on the backend to offer lending and borrowing yields to their users.
The Shift: DeFi platforms will evolve from “crypto-native only” zones into B2B infrastructure providers. While Aave dominates now, I expect them to lose market share to next-gen protocols like Morpho and Maple, which offer better flexibility for fintech integration.
5. [CONSENSUS] The Explosion of Vaults
DeFi is moving toward a Vault-centric model. I expect the AUM of vault systems to double in 2026 (> $15B).
Efficiency: Vaults create capital efficiency and allow passive allocation.
New Entrants: Non-crypto fintechs and embedded wallets will use vaults to deploy capital seamlessly. Morpho is the standout winner in this infrastructure shift.
6. [NON-CONSENSUS] Stocks Onchain & The Death of Alts
This is a high-conviction play: Stock Perps (Perpetual Futures) are coming onchain.
Whether native or wrapped, stock perps will be absorbed into the crypto economy via DEXs and CEXs.
The Consequence: This increases competition for altcoins. Previously, crypto tokens competed only with other crypto tokens. Now, they must compete with real businesses (NVDA, TSLA, AAPL) accessible on the same platform.
The purge: Investors will no longer hold a random governance token for a “dead” L2 with a $100M FDV when they can trade high-beta stocks onchain. This marks the death of the “zombie altcoin” in 2026.
Winner: Hyperliquid and other perp DEXs will fight a brutal war for dominance in the first half of the year, but the platform that successfully captures stock liquidity will win the cycle.
7. [CONSENSUS] Privacy: The Platform War
Privacy technology (ZK) is maturing, but the sector is at a crossroads.
The Niche: Currently, chains like ZEC and XMR own the “privacy routing” moat.
The Threat: If Ethereum or Solana successfully integrate privacy layers (e.g., shielded transactions) directly into their base or L2s, the moat for standalone privacy coins evaporates. If the major L1s adopt privacy, standalone privacy chains will suffer and lost the moat.
8. [NON-CONSENSUS] Hiring: The Crypto-Native Premium
As TradFi integrates crypto rails, the most valuable asset becomes human capital. I predict a hiring spree where non-crypto companies aggressively poach crypto-native talent to help them navigate and build for the onchain economy.
9. [NON-CONSENSUS] Insurance, CDS, and The First Major Default
This is a prediction I don’t see anyone else talking about. (For more details chat directly)
As the Vault business balloons to $15B+, we will see the emergence of exotic collateral and complex risk stratification. The problem? Lenders view over-collateralized yields as “risk-free.“ They are neglecting LTV risks and liquidity buffers.
The Event: I predict the first major default of a vault pool in 2026. Lenders—both crypto natives and fintech users—will face inability to withdraw, suffering haircuts of 10–20% (at least). Ignites an entire new conversation about the vault business, LTV size, and over-collateralize problems.
The Reaction: This will trigger a wave of bearish sentiment but will unlock a massive opportunity: Onchain CDS.
The Solution: Fintechs will integrate onchain CDS markets to offer truly “risk-managed” yields. Yields will finally reflect risk, with the spread between pools becoming visible via CDS pricing.
10. [NON-CONSENSUS] Electricity, Datacenters, & The Military Act
Another non-consensus prediction by myself. (For more details chat directly)
The US is facing an energy supply shock, unlike Europe or Asia. For different reasons, they have different characteristics. Where China have no electricity supply problem; Europe have no data center developing rush.
The Conflict: The US is in a technological cold war with China, where AI and Robotics are the new powerful weapons. The US military will require massive amounts of electricity to train and run defense AI.
The Squeeze: The government will likely sign acts (publicly or quietly) to prioritize energy for defense, crowding out consumer AI and commercial datacenters.
The Trade: Long US military contractors and energy producers. Short consumer-facing AI apps that rely on cheap compute.
The Bubble Pop: The AI bubble bursts when the “frontier” players (currently private) go public. Once the IPO liquidity hits the market, combined with the energy ceiling, the growth narrative collapses—likely between 2026 and 2027.
This is not a prediction of the bubble, but it is a prediction on the growing the market share of electricity by the US military, defense departments (government programs).
11. [CONSENSUS] AI Consumer Apps: B2B > Agentic Commerce
“Agentic commerce” (AI buying things for you) will continue to disappoint. Consumers aren’t asking for it.
The Reality: Real AI applications will become more expensive due to compute/energy costs. Therefore, AI will concentrate in high-value, high-payment industries: Consulting, Finance, and high-end Gaming. Cheap, fun consumer AI apps will die out as unit economics fail.
12. [NON-CONSENSUS] Prediction Markets: The Bear Case
Another contrarian bet, but in this scenario being a little bearish when everyone is bullish.
I am contrarian on Prediction Markets.
The Problem: Without US major events, and events that impact US specifically, 95% of the volume is washed or incentive-driven. For sports betting, the markets lack product-market fit for daily users because they don’t offer what gamblers actually want: Parlays**.**
The Competition: Sports betting apps are vastly superior consumer products. Unless prediction markets can solve the parlay/accumulator issue, they cannot compete with traditional gambling.
Valuation: If these platforms IPO in 2026, they will mark the top. I expect them to be the most overvalued stocks of the next few years. Market is price in the continue growth of volumes, open interest and the clear execution of sports betting. If they fail in any of this, the multiples vapor. And that’s my prediction, they will fail and conversation will emerge that unjustified the current multiples for prediction market platforms.