27 Jan 26' Trader perspective - Crypto ETFs are moving; Metals up
Trader thoughts on todays market information
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The market delivered a positive Monday characterized by significant ETF inflows. Ethereum provided the daily surprise with $117m in inflows, while BTC saw only $6.8m. This movement aligns with our previous expectations. Let’s wait and see if it continues.
Silver continues its rally; during the Monday “crash,” Silver-backed ETFs hit a record daily volume of $40b. This marks the highest turnover of any asset, representing 15 times its average daily volume. By comparison, the SPY traded $15b and QQQ $17b. These volumes signal euphoria alongside a strong demand to buy dips. Silver is trading back above $110, and gold exceeds $5,150. Gold’s performance has been impressive, seeing over $88b in inflows in 2025 alone, led by Asia with $50.7b.
Notably, we are now seeing Bitcoin perform in line with silver and gold during this week. This correlation could signal a market shift following the Monday silver “crash”, though it remains to be seen if capital will continue flowing from metals to Bitcoin or if this momentum will fade shortly.
On the macroeconomic front, tomorrow’s FED decision is expected to be a non-event. We anticipate no change to interest rates as the FED waits patiently to measure the impact of the last series of cuts on the economy, though the meeting will be crucial for future guidance. Meanwhile, the dollar’s performance has not been a problem for Trump, with the currency tumbling further on market reactions.
Regarding trade policy, tariffs show no signs of stopping despite court decisions. Trump remains committed, noting the policy is “indispensable toward success” and stating, “We will find another way if the supreme courts strikes tariffs.” While volatility based on geopolitical tension will persist, I’m expecting it will likely have a diminishing impact on direct market prices.
Geopolitically, Iraq is back in the news regarding the selection of a prime minister. Trump has warned that if the selection passes, aid will be removed and Iraq “will failed.”
China is going all-in on open-source LLM models, with the Kimi 2.5 model beating many US counterparts. Open-source competition is concentrating in China while the US focuses on protecting IP.
Anthropic raised $20b at a $305b valuation, and Tether has launched USAT, a federally regulated dollar-backed stablecoin made in America.