The week in detail: Week 2 26'
Markets run daily. This is our day-by-day week review
We closed the week with Bitcoin pushing from $90k to over $95k. Conversely, Oil retreated below $60 after spiking past $62 during the initial escalation of Iran tensions, and Copper also pulled back slightly from its highs. The week began with a major surge in risk-on assets, driven by critical geopolitical factors—specifically, tensions in Greenland and uncertainty regarding a potential US attack on Iran. However, as the week progressed, Trump confirmed our suspicion that these maneuvers were a combination of political bluffing and power plays. Consequently, Oil immediately reversed course, and ETF flows shifted direction.
Looking ahead, the market bill is becoming an increasingly relevant topic to track. While both sides of the political spectrum want the bill to pass, the terms regarding stablecoin rewards and developer protection remain unresolved. A delay in reaching an agreement could send a negative signal to the open market. Meanwhile, the situation in Greenland remains a focal point; if these tensions escalate further, the appetite for hedge assets will stay top of mind for investors. Elsewhere, Silver faces a potential downfall as retail indicators have reached massive highs, while the deteriorating presence of XMR could offer specific trading options for high-risk players. Ultimately, as investment-grade bonds degrade into junk and CDS volumes hit highs, traditional markets look increasingly fragile, leaving crypto as the singular attractive alternative.
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On Monday, Bitcoin tested the $92.5k ceiling with aggressive accumulation that signaled a potential breakout toward ATH, though volatility persisted due to geopolitical escalations involving US tariffs on China regarding Iran and NATO’s increased security focus in the Arctic. While privacy rights eroded across Europe—driven by Chancellor Merz’s surveillance push and Italian cloud restrictions—and Dubai tightened regulations, tokens like ZEC and XMR paradoxically rallied. In the US, Trump clashed historically with Powell over legal threats regarding interest rates while enforcing energy mandates to protect households from rising data center costs. Although broader crypto volumes lagged outside of the pumpfun niche and prediction markets, structural optimism returned as South Korea ended its corporate crypto ban and institutional actors like Saylor and Standard Chartered expanded infrastructure. Simultaneously, copper entered a lucrative super cycle that spurred physical cable theft, while Gemini launched its UCP as AI innovation continued to overshadow retail crypto engagement.
On Tuesday, Crypto assets dominated the headlines as BTC surged past $95k, liquidating over 1,000 short positions following a sentiment shift and positive ETF inflows. Although ETH and SOL outperformed the market leader, caution regarding the rally’s sustainability persisted. Geopolitical tensions escalated with Trump canceling meetings regarding Iran, where Starlink intervened to maintain connectivity amidst severe protests. On the economic front, core inflation at 2.6% beat expectations, fueling friction between Trump and Powell despite global central banks backing FED independence. Traditional finance stumbled as JPM stock fell over 4% due to declining investment banking fees, a red flag suggesting that stablecoins and DeFi may be cannibalizing the sector. Simultaneously, Dominion Energy emerged as a clear beneficiary of the massive electricity demand driven by Google and Amazon data centers, while institutional adoption accelerated through Franklin Templeton’s stablecoin pivot and record volumes in tokenized funds. The cycle concluded with niche momentum in privacy coins like XMR and significant buzz surrounding Claude’s new AI cowork product.
On Wednesday, Market volatility spiked as the VIX surged and the Nasdaq faltered following news of Nvidia H200 bans, driving capital toward safe havens like Gold and value assets. Geopolitical tensions eased in the Middle East after Trump’s strategic pressure compelled Iran to comply without military action, causing Oil prices to drop, yet focus immediately pivoted to the Arctic; NATO mobilized to defend Greenland against Russian and Chinese interests, a move that secured US objectives but likely left Ukraine vulnerable to renewed Russian aggression. While global equities struggled and China curbed leverage, the resource sector saw the White House utilize Section 232 to address mineral dependencies, even as profitable copper mining signaled rising supply. Amidst this turmoil, crypto emerged as the standout asset class, fueled by massive ETF inflows into BTC and ETH, a surging privacy narrative around XMR that highlighted a catch-up opportunity for ZEC, and strong potential for MSTR to rebound in Q1.
On Thursday, Geopolitical tensions simmered as Trump viewed Greenland as a national security interest, though the region’s economy relied on shrimp rather than the minerals Russia and China purportedly coveted. Concurrently, Israel and Arab States persuaded the US against striking Iran to prevent wider conflict, leading the administration to favor tariffs over military action; this strategic pivot pushed OIL down while Gold and bitcoin rallied. Trade dynamics shifted as China recorded a surplus with Africa and ASEAN, although rising figures from Vietnam suggested significant transshipment back to the US. On the energy front, a $15b infrastructure push aimed to address critical shortfalls, while copper prices rose despite Rio Tinto scaling new extraction methods and emerging market pressure for substitutes. The crypto sector proved ballistic with over $1.05b in ETF inflows—led by BTC and ETH—and a surge in institutionalization from players like Galaxy, LSEG, and State Street. Although legislative friction persisted regarding stablecoin rewards, Coinbase capitalized on a massive yield spread against traditional banks, signaling a market ultimately driven by tokenization before the world briefly paused for a rare medical extraction mission by SpaceX.
On Friday, The DOJ confirmed that forfeited Bitcoin remained on the USG balance sheet as part of the SBR, effectively removing immediate sell-off risks and stabilizing market sentiment. While ETF momentum decelerated, ETH inflows surprisingly outpaced BTC, though broader macro indicators flashed warnings as corporate bonds faced downgrades and European energy prices spiked. Volatility consumed XMR after ZachXBT linked its recent price movements to the laundering of a $282m hack, resulting in a sharp crash as the market braced for further downside. Geopolitically, tensions regarding Greenland threatened the USD but highlighted Bitcoin as a potential beneficiary, while Novogratz fueled optimism for the upcoming structure bill despite opposition from banking lobbies. Finally, silver saw a speculative surge amidst record retail inflows, while South Korea effectively closed its doors to foreign exchanges