What happened today: 07 Jan 26'
Today market review
This is the 2026 daily market review. Where I wrote with curiosity to curious people. I try to give exercise thoughts on what happened during the day. And what can impact the future.
Get in touch, and follow us. Thanks, Joao
The market is weird today. The SP500 is down over -0.3%, while the Nasdaq finished up 0.1%. Its price action was non-correlated to the SP500—an interesting move to watch. Meanwhile, oil prices, 10-year yields, Gold, and Bitcoin all finished down. It’s a strange setup characterized by a sell-off in almost all assets, with capital allocating back to dollars.
Bitcoin is back to $91.2k, which I didn’t expect at all. This was probably the last test of the bottom for Bitcoin in Q1—though I admit I said that last time.
Most of today’s news flow was positive, starting with MSCI concluding its review into DAT index inclusion. The decision not to exclude DATs was critical for Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy (MSTR). MSTR price reacted quickly and positively to the announcement. It will likely be incorporated into the SP500 index—a major deal for the strategy and for Bitcoin.
On the flip side, Riot sold over $161m in BTC to support lagging production; even though they are up MoM, they remain down 11% YoY.
Regarding flows, ETFs did not see an agressive unwind or outflows yesterday. IBIT, the major retail tradable ETF, maintained positive flows, but BTC flows overall was negative. ETH, SOL, and XRP also saw positive flows, actually beating Bitcoin itself. It is interesting to see SOL and ETH outperforming BTC at the start of the year. XRP continues to be mentioned on traditional terminals as the “darling” trade, while Solana is highlighted as the faster, cheaper blockchain.
Macro & Policy Inflation remains positive, with European inflation hitting the target rate of 2%. Tariffs ended up not being a big deal. However, a new concern is emerging: the labor market is suffering.
Job Openings opened lower than expected, maintaining the downtrend.
We are at the end of a 4-year cycle where we have 685k more unemployed people than job openings; the data tells us the labor market is finally feeling the pain.
Government jobs are at an all-time low due to the push to lay off staff (probably a good thing, idk).
Oil prices might ignite a fire here. Prices are being pushed down with Venezuela turning over 30 to 50 million barrels of crude to the US under President Trump. However, commodity experts noted yesterday that they don’t see this as sustainable or entirely true.
Institutional Adoption Institutions are finally FOMO’ing. A big chunk got in early, understanding the revolutionary technology unlocking here. Others waited, and are only entering now. This signals a realization that the market is much bigger than expected; Bitcoin is now as socially important as it is financially important to offer clients.
Morgan Stanley launched BTC ETFs and filed a registration for an Ethereum trust with the SEC.
John D’Agostino noted they are not seeing any institutional slowdown on crypto adoption simply because prices dipped in Q4 2025.
Regulation & Banking A serious note and alarm bell: bankers sent an important letter to Congress regarding the “Genius Act.” They are trying to close the loophole that allows stablecoin issuers to indirectly fund payments to holders via exchanges. They essentially want to kill the possibility of users getting direct yield on stablecoins. This is alarming for the banking community, which claims this unlocks “critical risks.” In reality, it shows banks are threatened by DeFi and crypto. Where there is smoke, there is fire—this is bullish for crypto.
Sector Watch
Defense: This sector is critical to the Trump administration. He banned dividends, buybacks, and incentives over $5m for managers unless they build “new and modern production plants” in the US. Increased defense spending is a mega-trend for 2026/2027, specifically regarding drone manufacturing and 3D printing.
Real Estate: Another ban hit the real estate market in an attempt to solve the housing problem. It is clearly a supply issue, yet policy reinforces controlling demand.
Gurus & Predictions
Arthur Hayes: In a scenario where Polymarket gives the mid-terms to Democrats, GDP growth and flat/falling oil prices become key administration priorities. Credit expansion balloons Bitcoin. ZEC remains the privacy beta coin.
Matt Hougan: Highlighted 3 functions for a good year: no “October event,” passage of the market structure bill, and continued equity strength (no recession).
Ray Dalio: Two major trends I agree with: 1) USD devaluation moved in 2025 and continues in 2026; 2) US Stocks will underperform non-US markets and Gold.
Project Updates
Lighter rolls out 24/5 equity perps.
Tether announced Scudo, a token offering better pricing for gold-backed XAU.
Hyperliquid is apparently back, with inflows surpassing $80m.
xAI raised another $20b in Series E.
And that’s all for today’s market. A lot happened.
Thanks, again! Get in touch for more.