What happened today? 15 Jan 26'
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[Audio version in podcast format]
It is sad, but I am becoming accustomed to these conflicts. Tensions continue to simmer regarding Greenland and Iran, albeit with a few adjustments. The White House has been clear that Trump views Greenland as a national security interest and wishes to acquire it, attempting to be persuasive toward the Greenlanders. While we encounter constant discussion regarding Greenland’s importance, the factual reality is that their economy depends on shrimp exports, not minerals. GDP grew at 0.8% in 2024 and 0.2% in 2025. Furthermore, Greenlanders face more immediate domestic issues than the political maneuvering between the US, Europe, and China/Russia. Currently, Greenland has only one active mine, and it will take 20 years for mining facilities to make any significant economic impact.
The Arctic remains the central issue. Russia is accusing the West of militarizing the region while mocking Europe’s defensive capabilities, stating that Europe is clearly dependent on the US and that “Europe will just shit their pants and give up Greenland.” Notably, neither Russia nor China has ever stated plans to occupy Greenland.
Geopolitical instability is rising, and even Putin is alarmed and aware of the stakes. Gold wins, bitcoin wins. Multiple sources indicate that Israel and Arab States are urging Trump not to strike Iran, warning that a US strike could trigger a wider regional conflict. While smaller strikes might boost protester morale, they would not stop Tehran’s crackdown, and any action would likely trigger retaliation against US bases. I considered this recently and concluded that the US will likely not strike Iran under these conditions. Trump understands this clearly, even if he does not mention it publicly; he knows the art of negotiation. If he intended to strike, he would handle matters differently. The market agrees, with OIL trading down on these announcements. Instead of strikes, he will likely choose retaliation that affects the wealth of specific entities benefiting from the average Iranian—and, of course, tariffs.
While Europe is economically weaker, China has recorded a +19.7% YoY trade surplus, shifting focus from the US to Africa and ASEAN. However, I believe this shift is not 100% real. Exports from China to Vietnam have increased while China to US exports decreased; simultaneously, exports from Vietnam to the US have risen. This suggests that transshipment is happening across the board.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the world expects a new energy power auction that will force technology giants to pay for new power plants. We expect the construction of $15b worth of new infrastructure. The energy crisis is real, with Pennsylvania already reporting a shortfall of over 6,623 megawatts—enough to power approximately 6.6 million homes.
Despite our warnings about an eventual supply shock, copper price keeps rising. Rio Tinto is scaling a new method that facilitates and sprints the extraction of oil, reactivating mining facilities that were previously uneconomical at lower copper prices. While this is still not enough, Rio Tinto intends to scale this method to other facilities. However, a new force is emerging that I did not account for in my thinking model: market pressure to reduce the need for copper by using substitutes and incentivizing recycling. The thesis continue to be valid, I’m not expecting in one or two year significant gains on copper price, as new supply will eventually come online, and traders will price it quickly. It can still go up, just don’t go with the same velocity.
Crypto ETFs were ballistic yesterday with over $1.05b worth of inflows. Bitcoin alone saw $840m in inflows, while ETH saw $175m. I expect today to follow the same pattern, even with a slight price correction after three days of momentum. Regarding legislation, the crypto bill has momentum but may face delays. Brian, the CEO of Coinbase, does not support the current market structure bill, whereas Robinhood does. The major, unique problem is the inability to transfer stablecoin rewards to users. This is a critical issue, especially as banks and committees make a significant push to block that “black hole.”
This drama will continue to flow through the markets, but it effectively serves as free marketing for Coinbase. The spread between what banks offer and what Coinbase offers is significant: Coinbase incentivizes with a 3.5% yield, while banks offer a 0.1% interest-bearing deposit account. The spread is huge, and I believe users will want to take advantage of it. It will be measured by Q1 deposits on coinbase future earnings call.
Today, major information regarding the crypto sector was released, specifically regarding institutionalization:
Galaxy and LSEG are moving to provide institutional products; one unlocks a tokenized collateral loan obligation onchain, while the other launched a platform to settle transactions using tokenized commercial bank depositors.
JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos mentioned they expect capital inflows into crypto markets to rise further in 2026, compared to $130b inflows in 2025.
State Street launched a digital asset platform to power tokenized finance.
CME added more tokens to their derivatives lineup.
Anchorage unlocked lending markets for offchain collateral.
Interactive Brokers introduced 24/7 account funding using USDC.
Fundamentally, the market is currently driven by tokenization and institutionalization.
Finally, the world stopped for a minute, though California felt it differently. It was reminiscent of a day in Portugal—different events, but similar visualizations. SpaceX brought four astronauts back to Earth after one experienced a medical issue, marking the first time a mission was shortened due to astronaut health. What an spectacular event.