What happened today? 16 Jan 26'
Our daily market review
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The DOJ has confirmed that the Bitcoin forfeited in the Samourai Wallet case has not been liquidated and will remain on the USG balance sheet as part of the SBR. This is a significant signal from the US administration that offers immediate relief to the market, as it eliminates the substantial risk of the DOJ breaking the executive order to sell these assets.
While yesterday concluded with high anticipation, we are still awaiting the expected announcements regarding the energy power auction. As of now, markets have been somewhat unusual; Bitcoin volumes are down, and while no major events have shaken the broader crypto sector, selected altcoins continue to trend higher.
We finally have clarity on the recent volatility of XMR. ZachXBT revealed that a victim lost $282m worth of LTC and BTC in a hardware wallet social engineering scam. The attacker laundered these funds by converting them to Monero via multiple instant exchanges, causing the XMR price to spike sharply and driving the divergence between ZEC and XMR. Following this revelation, XMR is down 15% on the announcement and over 20% from its local high. Significant downside risk remains; if prices trend lower, further long liquidations could trigger another 20% drop or more.
In the ETF market, momentum decelerated yesterday, though net flows remained positive at over $290m. Interestingly, inflows were concentrated in ETH ($164m) compared to BTC ($100m). The coming week will be critical to determine if this deceleration signals a shift toward outflows or merely a brief pause before a stronger push. Meanwhile, macro indicators are flashing warning signals. In Europe, storms have rapidly driven up prices for heating systems dependent on gas, highlighting the region’s persistent energy vulnerability.
Simultaneously, corporate bond markets are showing strain, with $55b in bonds downgraded from investment-grade to junk status in 2025. When combined with high volumes in the CDS market, it suggests investors are hedging against an eventual bust.
Geopolitical tension is also mounting around Greenland. Trump has maintained a serious stance, threatening tariffs on nations that do not align with his interests in the region, citing national security. Commerzbank analyst Thy Lan Nguyen noted that an attempt to acquire Greenland could hurt the US dollar, strain relations with Europe, and risk sanctions. In a conflict scenario, reduced European demand for the dollar could threaten its status as the world reserve currency. While this sounds like a pitch for Bitcoin, the asset stands to be a primary beneficiary of such instability, offering an alternative currency in a “risk-on” environment. Further highlighting the strategic stakes, the Danish Arctic commander has invited the US to join military exercises in Greenland, signaling that the world recognizes the growing risks in the Arctic Ocean.
Looking further ahead, a major driver for crypto market optimism in 2026 is the structure bill. Much like the “genius act” spurred the growth of stablecoins, this bill is expected to unlock a wave of positivity and legitimize crypto markets. Michael Novogratz believes the bill could pass within weeks, as both political sides want a resolution. However, a contentious issue remains: the banking lobby is pushing to restrict crypto companies from offering rewards, aiming to protect their monopoly on savings accounts and maintain profitability. Elsewhere in regulatory news, South Korea is effectively closing its market to overseas centralized exchanges through strict enforcement, making it a low-viability region for foreign business.
Silver prices are surging, driven by record retail inflows of $921m and activity levels 2.1 times the 3-month moving average. Shanghai silver premiums have hit record highs, indicating massive retail hype. However, such high speculation often precedes a correction; with liquidity at these levels, large holders may soon sell into the strength.
OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Pro for $8 in the US and plans to test ads in the free tier, while Anchorage Digital is raising between $200m and $400m ahead of a potential IPO, confirming that appetite in the crypto IPO market remains hot.
To cap off the recent political maneuvering, Trump continues to position himself strategically, with events unfolding in such a way that he may surprisingly end up securing a Nobel Peace Prize.